Low corona infection rates in Brighton & Hove: why?
In the barrage of gloomy Corona news it is worth highlighting that infection rates in Brighton & Hove have remained low in comparison with the UK average … and even low in comparison with continental European countries. What are the reasons?
For purposes of comparison, our best available indicator is the number of confirmed new Covid-19 infections – per 100.000 population – in the last 7 days. The number for Brighton & Hove is 9. The average for the UK is 52.
To put this in perspective, the respective numbers for some European countries are: Germany 15, Greece 21, Netherlands 86, France 122. (Source: official websites accessed through our Florence Road Group site).
Question to all: why are infections rates in Brighton low? Is there a systematic explanation? Is it just luck? Of course, one super-spreader or super-spreading event could change the picture dramatically.
WendyT says
I’ve wondered about this too. As well as a young population, we also have low numbers of ethnic minorities. Although we have a lot of workers in hospitality which may now be high-risk, this was closed for many weeks, and we don’t have any industry to speak of. Leaving aside front-line essential workers, my assumption is that the majority of people have been working from home (buses and trains have been almost deserted).
If you compare B and H with midlands/northern cities, we are relatively prosperous. Of course we have pockets of deprivation, but we don’t have many overcrowded/multi generation households – it seems fairly obvious that infection rates are strongly related to socio-economic factors (again, excepting frontline workers)
I also think that proximity to the sea, countryside and even large green urban spaces has made it easier to socialise and exercise outside. A friend in the south of France told me that there was an early theory that proximity to the sea might have a protective effect but now that rates in Bordeaux and Nice are high, that doesn’t seem to apply!
Whatever the reasons, let’s hope that our relative luck continues!
MarkR says
Brighton has a fairly young population so perhaps there are many asymptomatic young people who haven’t been tested? As us ‘oldies’ have kept away from pubs, cafes and restaurants we haven’t mingled with them. Or perhaps being near the sea and Downs we all spend more time outside than citizens in other towns?
However students are returning and a friend of mine says that yesterday he was in Lidl and it was full of returning students who were buying large quantities of bottles and cans of alcohol and they weren’t social distancing or wearing masks!
So watch this space…